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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/5 through Sun, 8/11
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Record Last Week: 3-4 (Overall: 65-52)
Run Differential Last Week: -5 (Overall: +54)
Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (3.5 GB)
Game 111 | MIN 3, CHC 0: Festa Leads Way in Shutout for Pitching Staff
Game 112 | CHC 7, MIN 3: Cubs Get to Pablo, Lineup Can't Answer
Game 113 | CHC 8, MIN 2: Ryan Exits with Arm Injury, Twins Drop Series
Game 114 | MIN 4, CLE 2: Ober Leads the Way in Series-Opening Win
Game 115 | MIN 6, CLE 3: Wallner's Home Run Turns Tables on Cleveland
Game 116 | CLE 2, MIN 1: Offense Stymied, SWR's Strong Start Spoiled
Game 117 | CLE 5, MIN 3: Late Rallies Fall Short, Twins Settle for Split
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NEWS & NOTES
Just in time for the start of their most important series of the season up to this point, the Twins shared an avalanche of crushing injury updates on Friday that will have a significant impact on the team's outlook for the rest of the way. Let's run through them and get up to speed.
- Joe Ryan was diagnosed with a grade-2 teres major strain, which will likely sideline him for the remainder of the campaign. Ryan pulled himself from Wednesday's start against the Cubs in the third inning, waving for a trainer to the mound immediately after unleashing a pitch and quickly exiting. In the big picture, this muscle strain is not a worst-case scenario in the same realm as a rotator cuff or UCL tear, but for 2024 it's a devastating blow to the Twins and their rotation. Ryan had been one of the best starters in the American League. The Twins haven't officially ruled him out for the year but given the recovery timeline, it'll be nearly impossible for him to make it back as a starter, if at all.
- We learned more definitively on Friday that Brock Stewart is done for the season, set to undergo surgery on his shoulder with a 5-6 month expected recovery. It was probably wishful thinking to expect any meaningful impact from Stewart, especially after what we saw during his brief return attempt in July, but still the finality of this news hits hard. Minnesota will now have to make do without one of their best starters and best relievers.
- Stewart was placed back on the 60-day IL to make room for reliever Scott Blewett, who joined the 40-man and active rosters. Those spots might've gone to Justin Topa, but unfortunately the veteran hit an unspecified "setback" in his rehab and his status is now in limbo once again.
- While unfortunate, the IL moves for Ryan and Stewart were not unexpected. It was a bit more surprising to see Brooks Lee join them on the injured list, with the team hoping some down time will help relieve his sore shoulder. You wonder how much that issue was impeding his performance at the plate, where Lee put up a .197 average and .492 OPS in his past 18 games. Kyle Farmer's readiness to return from his own shoulder injury enabled Minnesota to swap in another infielder and give Lee's ailing shoulder a break. Hopefully a couple of weeks off can get him feeling right because the rookie stillhasa role to play.
- Carlos Correa set his sights on being back on the field for the Cleveland series, but was unable to do so as his recovery from plantar fasciitis lags and frustrates the star infielder. Correa ran sprints on Thursday but reported afterward that the foot injury is "not quite where we want it to be yet." With a rehab assignment in the cards ahead of his activation, next weekend appears to be the soonest Correa could return to the Twins, and even that might be a stretch. He's rightfully taking a long view as the team continues to hold its own in his absence.
Rounding out the roster news for the week: Steven Okert went on the bereavement list on Monday, with Josh Winder recalled to take his place. Right-handed reliever Giovanny Gallegos signed a minor-league deal and joined the Saints, which wouldn't normally be too noteworthy but might be in light of his considerable MLB experience and Minnesota's growing need for bullpen depth.
HIGHLIGHTS
Ever since he returned to the big leagues following a lengthy stay in Triple-A, Matt Wallner has been a one-man wrecking crew, obliterating baseballs to an unparalleled degree. He delivered perhaps the biggest Twins highlight of the season on Friday night: a go-ahead three-run homer that turned the tides in the game and helped lift Minnesota to a doubleheader sweep over Cleveland.
Wallner was facing Alex Cobb in the bottom of the fifth with two runners on. In the top half of the inning, Louie Varland had given up a three-run homer that put the Guardians on top for the first time all day, sucking the wind out of Minnesota's sails. Not for long. Cobb fell behind Wallner 3-0 and made the ill-advised decision to come right into the middle of the zone against one of MLB's foremost mistake crushers. Unfortunately for Cobb, Wallner had the green light.
It was a very strong week overall for the slugging outfielder, who went 6-for-18 with three doubles, the homer and five RBIs to power the offense. He was supported by quality contributions from Christian Vázquez (5-for-9 with two doubles and a homer) and Byron Buxton, who missed the Cubs series but then chipped in two homers and a double against Cleveland.
In the rotation, the loss of Ryan means heightened pressure for rookie David Festa to assume a prominent role, through the end of the season and likely into the playoffs. So it's a good thing that Festa looked up to the task on Monday night in Chicago, tossing five innings of shutout ball with nine strikeouts. He didn't look quite as good in his second start of the week on Sunday, failing to make it out of the fourth against Cleveland as his command started to elude him, but still only gave up one run.
If Festa can keep pitching well, he has the capability to accompany Pablo López and Bailey Ober in a formidable playoff rotation even with Ryan unavailable. López was off his game in Chicago on Tuesday but still has a 3.31 ERA in his past six turns. Ober was phenomenal once again on Friday, holding Cleveland scoreless through six innings in a series-opening victory. He has rattled off nine consecutive quality starts.
On Saturday, Simeon Woods Richardson bounced back in a big way, holding the Guardians to two runs in seven innings to wash away the sour aftertaste of back-to-back ugly outings. Woods Richardson is now vying for a potential role in the postseason rotation himself, and performances like that one will help make the case. His ERA stands at 3.78 through 20 starts.
Minnesota's bullpen keeps getting the job done when they're handed leads, even in the absence of Stewart. The nightmare outing from Trevor Richards, who came in cold following the Ryan injury on Wednesday and proceeded to struggle immensely (0.2 IP, 5 BB, 3 ER), skews the unit's overall results, but the relief corps played a key part in winning some tight ballgames. Twins relievers gave up only two runs in 11 ⅓ innings across the three victories.
Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax naturally led the way, combining for four shutout frames, but there were also some promising performances elsewhere. That included Richards rebounding from the Wednesday clunker with a 1-2-3 ninth to pick up a save on Friday, Caleb Thielbar flashing some strikeout ability (8 K in 4.2 IP) and Winder delivering five innings of shutout, one-hit ball in long relief.
LOWLIGHTS
The Twins have been suffering major losses across all parts of the roster. In the rotation and bullpen, we've seen people step up. In the lineup, we need to see more of it.
There weren't many outstanding offensive performances to accompany Wallner's mashing in a week where Minnesota batted .222 and averaged just 3.1 runs per game. Willi Castro went 5-for-27 (.185) with one double and one walk. Ryan Jeffers was 2-for-14 (.143) with no walks, and didn't drive in or score a run outside of his solo homer on Friday. José Miranda was 2-for-20 (.100), and is batting .205 with zero homers or RBIs since being activated from the injured list on July 27th.
Austin Martin has been particularly unimpressive. He continues to produce almost nothing offensively (two singles in 15 plate appearances last week) and his defense has been shoddy whether viewed by the eye test or fielding metrics. The ostensible value of Martin's versatility loses its luster when he can't make plays at the positions he plugs into. Tuesday's adventurous route and ill-fated dive in center field at Wrigley on a Dansby Swanson "triple" served as one of the low points in the week.
One way or another, Varland is going to be counted on by the Twins given the attrition on their pitching staff. Ideally he can eventually pick up where he left off in the bullpen, as a dominating arm in the late innings capable of offsetting the loss of Stewart. But for now, the Twins need him as part of their starting depth, and in that capacity, they called him up for the nightcap of Friday's doubleheader against Cleveland.
Unfortunately, it was a pretty typical Varland start. He looked fine the first two times through the order and then unraveled the third time, putting a pair of runners aboard before serving up a 1-2 meatball to cleanup hitter Josh Naylor, who went yard for a three-run blast that (briefly) gave Cleveland the lead. For a fourth time in his eight MLB starts this year, Varland failed to complete five innings.
It's par for the course for Varland, whose tendency to lapse into back-breaking mistake pitches at inopportune times has railroaded his progress as a starting pitcher. Finding a way to get the right-hander into a place where he can actually provide some value, whatever the role, is beginning to feel pivotal for Minnesota's outlook.
TRENDING STORYLINE
With Chris Paddack still down for the foreseeable future and Ryan likely out for the season, the Twins will see their starting pitching depth tested. They've already got a pair of rookies in the rotation in Festa and Woods Richardson. Varland is in play. Who else might factor in as the Twins push through the remainder of their schedule?
Notably, Derek Falvey did not rule out Zebby Matthews when asked about the ascendant pitching prospect, who's currently at Triple-A. Matthews has a 5.68 ERA in four starts since being promoted to the Saints, but it comes along with a stellar 23-to-1 K/BB ratio in 19 innings. He last started on Thursday and could be in line to make his MLB debut during the upcoming Royals series.
Meanwhile, the Twins havereportedly shown interest in old friend Rich Hill, who is gearing up to help a contender at age 44. He's not someone you would want to count on in any crucial spot at this stage, but if Hill were able come aboard and eat some innings in a Dallas Keuchel/Bartolo Colon capacity, that would be potentially useful and a fun little storyline.
LOOKING AHEAD
Another huge week is on tap for the Twins, who will welcome their other top divisional foe to Target Field for a three-game series. The third-place Royals trail Minnesota by just a half a game in the standings, and will be looking to leapfrog them in their home park. Get ready to be annoyed by Bobby Witt Jr.
Minnesota's pitching plans for that series are up in the air, though as mentioned above, Matthews could be in line to make a start. From there, it's off to Texas for four games against the defending champs. Check out that probable starter for the Rangers on Sunday!
MONDAY, AUG 12: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Brady Singer v. RHP Pablo Lopez
TUESDAY, AUG 13: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Seth Lugo v. TBD
WEDNESDAY, AUG 14: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Cole Ragans v. Bailey Ober
THURSDAY, AUG 15: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. LHPCody Bradford
FRIDAY, AUG 16: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP David Festa v. RHP Nathan Eovaldi
SATURDAY AUG 17: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. LHP Andrew Heaney
SUNDAY, AUG 18: TWINS @ RANGERS – TBD v. RHP Tyler Mahle
